Analysts’ lame coverage of Alcoa

The top-rated, most accurate analyst covering aluminum producer Alcoa (AA-N) is Credit Agricole's David Lipschitz. Going into Alcoa's earnings report for the first quarter of 2012, Lipschitz had a 'sell' recommendation on the stock. Not a fan, but apparently usually accurate in his calculations.

But of the 18 industry analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters before the earnings release, every single one was later surprised. Not one expected the company to post a profit.

I have asked the question: "How does everyone get it wrong?" I've not found any acceptable explanation.

BNN viewers have responded in surprising numbers to some of my previous blogs and I'm filing this brief thought-starter to ask for your opinion.

Why was Alcoa so difficult to figure out?

Should I be taking analysts' opinions seriously?

Answers -- Business News Nation -- I need answers.