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What a ride the euro has been on this year.
Sebastien Galy, senior currency strategist with Societe Generale in New York, says the euro has been one of the hardest currencies to predict and trade this year. He says many of his trader buddies have been burned in recent months playing the euro, particularly versus the greenback.
The problem, he says, is there are so many factors that influence the Euro and it's been nearly impossible to predict what will happen next. Fed policy…ECB policy…the political climate…snap Greek elections…all of these factors are unpredictable and change on a day-by-day basis. Making a short term bet and getting it right has been difficult, he says.
For those with a longer term investment horizon -- say over the next few months -- Galy expects the Euro to start losing steam versus the U.S. dollar. Mainly, he says, because there remains a huge amount of risk over Europe's finances. Galy says the euro should break below $1.30 US soon.
One caveat is those Greek elections on May 6th, which could throw a spanner in the works. We simply do not know what a new government in Greece might do regarding fiscal policy, he says.
But here's one final currency prediction from Galy: go long the Mexico peso and short the Japanese yen. Galy likes the peso because he expects the Mexican economy will continue to outperform its peers thanks to its improving manufacturing sector.
And on the flip side he expects more easing from the Bank of Japan, which should further depress the yen. However, he adds, wait a bit before pulling the trigger on this trade. He would wait for a better entry point.