Profit falls at Potash Corp

At the Business Day morning meeting -- yes, we meet each morning, which will come as a surprise to many who think the freshness and spontaneity of the show arise organically from the improvisational genius of its hosts -- Frances mentioned that the earnings season for Canadian gold companies has begun not with a bang but a whimper. To win autographed pictures of Frances and me -- inscribed with an inspirational message ("Hang in there!" Or "Perseverance: Do or Do Not. There is no try."), tell us the source of Frances' paraphrased quotation. No Wikipedia, please. You must explain how you know the author and the work. Respond to businessday@bnn.ca.

• So much for benchmarking. U.S. fertilizer company Mosaic topped profit and revenue expectations earlier in the week, sending its shares and shares of its industry rivals higher on expectations that the market had underestimated the sector's performance through the quarter. Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan serves as a reminder this morning that a stock market is a market of stocks and a company is not a sector (unless you're Apple). Net profit fell more than expected in the first quarter to 56 cents a share from 84 cents a year earlier, short of 64-cent estimate, as sales dropped to $1.75 billion from $2.2 billion. The company also cut its full-year profit and revenue forecasts, saying a rebound in potash demand "took longer than we expected." As the world's biggest fertilizer producer and one of the more widely-held stocks in the country, the story needs to stay at the top of our line-up through the day.

• Goldcorp will be among the stocks to watch today after the world's second-biggest gold producer missed expectations with a 26-percent decline in earnings on a drop in production and an increase in costs. While many other gold companies won't be in the same boat with regards to production, most are fighting rising costs as well. Gold stocks have been lagging the performance of bullion for several quarters now though the spread has narrowed somewhat in recent weeks due to gold's decline. Is that spread about to widen yet again? What can Goldcorp's numbers tell us about the rest of the sector? Agnico-Eagle also reports today.

• Maple Group's agreement to buy TMX Group expires Monday after a year of trying to convince regulators and the Competition Bureau that the deal is good for financial markets, good for investors and good for Canada. The Competition Bureau told us yesterday that it continues to review the proposal in the wake of requesting alterations to some details of the deal. Today, The Globe and Mail, citing unnamed sources, reports that some of the 13 members comprising the Maple Group are considering walking away. This morning a spokesperson for Maple tells us only that "we'll see by the 30 ^th what happens." Thanks for that. Our question today is a simple one: Will this deal get done? The clock is ticking. 

• On the Canadian earnings front, we're watching numbers from Canfor, Domtar, Husky, Imperial Oil, Precision Drilling, Shopper Drug Mart, Transalta and Inmet.

• U.S. earnings will help drive markets today. We're examining numbers from Exxon Mobil, PepsiCo, Kellogg, Starbucks, UPS, Dow Chemical, Colgate-Palmolive, Altria, Lockheed Martin, Zynga and Amazon.com.

• CIBC is hosting its AGM in Halifax today. The Lower Deck will then host the after-party. "Sociable!"

Every morning Managing Editor Marty Cej writes a "chase note" to BNN's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Click here to have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins.