U.S. jobs recovery in question

“Give Mom a Hot Flash!”

- The somewhat inappropriate Mother’s Day proposal that landed in my email box today from 1-800-Flowers.Com

• Goldman Sachs expected "a sluggish April employment report, with a 125,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls," while TD Securities told clients "we like an above-consensus call" for the market-moving U.S. jobs data this morning. That's what makes a market. The U.S. economy added just 115,000 new positions in April, while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 8.1 percent from 8.2 percent. Economists were expecting the economy to 160,000 new jobs. ING Financial Markets had the high estimate with 210,000 while Southern Polytechnic State took the low road with a forecast for 89,000. The data will likely dictate the direction of trade this morning. The number will also become a weapon for both sides in the battle for the White House. The spin each side puts on the numbers every month is a marvel to observe.

• For Canadian investors, the U.S. data's influence will be felt first in the currency and bond markets. But watch for further pressure on oil prices if the number comes in well short of the consensus. That, in turn, could mean a rough morning for the energy stocks. Oil is currently bubbling at a three-week low ahead of the data. Gold will also react if a weak number puts QE3 back on the table or a stronger number quashes talk of additional Fed action in the near-term.

• Speaking of a rough morning, keep an eye on GMP Capital after the company fell well short of expectations with a first-quarter loss of a penny per share, compared with expectations for a profit of 16 cents. Revenue dropped to $66 million, short of the $82 million estimate. GMP also halved its dividend to 5 cents a share. The company blames a tough capital markets environment.

• We have a stellar line-up of CEOs today, including a conversation with Manulife boss Don Guloien at 12:30 p.m. ET. The company's first-quarter results trumped expectations but has the company truly turned a corner and will it win back some of the doubters that fled when it trimmed its dividend a few years ago?

• Before that, we'll sit down with Leo de Bever, CEO of AIMco, which oversees $71 billion in assets for the fine hard-workin' people of Alberta. We'll get his thoughts on Canadian markets, the Canadian economy, the U.S. economy, the European debt crisis, commodities, pipelines, Mayweather vs. Cotto and the Kentucky Derby. He joins us at 11:00 a.m.

• Colleen Johnston, CFO at TD Bank, was named CFO of the year. She sits down with us at 8:20. We hope she brings the solid gold HP 12c Financial Calculator she won.

• It's a HUGE weekend for sports with the Kentucky Derby and the Mayweather/Cotto fight, so we'll call up our favourite bookie in Reno and get the odds for you. Around 10:15 or so.

• We're also watching earnings from Air Canada, Madison Square Gardens and Berkshire Hathaway.

Every morning Managing Editor Marty Cej writes a "chase note" to BNN's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Click here to have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins.