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Assurances by policy makers that the recent surge in headline inflation—spurred on by soaring commodity prices—is transitory may be off the mark, one economist said in a research note on Thursday.
Douglas Porter, an economist at BMO Capital markets, said markets are already beginning to price in the risk of growing inflation—with soaring gold prices the most obvious example.
But policy makers and other dovish commentators continually point to low core inflation figures, a major output gap and slow wage growth as reasons for why inflation will remain contained, he said.
Porter responds to these claims and concludes: “Despite the soothing words from central banks on this point, there is little doubt which way inflation risks are now tilting.”
His five arguments for growing inflation are: