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Stocks rose around the world and emerging- market currencies advanced as weak economic data globally sent the odds of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates this year to a record low.
The MSCI All Country World Index climbed for the first time in three days and developing-nation shares headed for the highest close since August as the prospect of lower Fed rates for longer boosted demand for riskier assets. The ringgit, won and rupiah strengthened more than 1.4 percent as the Fed speculation weighed on the dollar. While Treasuries declined, the 10-year note yield was below 2 percent. Gold was close to a three-month high, and U.S. oil fell for a fourth day.
“The third-quarter selloff created a lot of value so people are getting involved again,” Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING Groep NV in Singapore. “Data out of the U.S. is reinforcing that U.S. monetary policy isn’t a threat and that helps market sentiment. China’s policy remains accommodative.”
Economic data from Group of 10 nations are missing analysts’ estimates by the most in four months, according to a Citigroup Inc. index, including weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales, and slowdowns in Japan, China, the U.K. and Germany. That’s caused investors to almost rule out a Fed rate increase this year, and helped cut global bond yields to a five-month low.
The MSCI All-Country World Index climbed 0.7 percent at 11:42 a.m. in London. The gauge has lost about 5 percent since the end of June weighed down by the collapse of China’s equity bubble, the shock devaluation of the yuan and slowing growth globally.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.2 percent, led by technology and financial companies. Unilever climbed 3.9 percent in London after boosting its full-year sales forecast. Supermarket operator Casino Guichard Perrachon SA jumped as much as 10 percent as quarterly sales rose more than projected. Burberry Group Plc tumbled 12 percent after reporting lower sales in Asia and indicating that full-year profit will probably decline for the second year.
Standard & Poor’s 500 Index E-mini futures expiring in December rose 0.7 percent after the gauge slid for two days. Netflix Inc. fell 3.5 percent in early New York trading after third-quarter U.S. subscriber growth missed analysts’ estimates.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc. are among 13 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings today.
Bloomberg’s dollar index slipped 0.1 percent, as the greenback weakened against most major peers. The gauge earlier touched the lowest level since June 30. The yen rose as much as 0.6 percent to 118.10 per dollar, the strongest in more than six weeks. The Japanese currency has risen about 1.6 percent this week.
The New Zealand dollar added as much as 1.6 percent to 68.97 U.S. cents, the highest since June 26. The currency surged 2.2 percent on Wednesday, its best one-day performance since March. Australia’s dollar rose a second day, strengthening 0.6 percent to 73.45 cents.
The euro retreated from a seven-week high versus the dollar, after European Central Bank policy maker Ewald Nowotny said the institution is “clearly missing” its inflation targets. The shared currency fell 0.3 percent to $1.1435, after earlier climbing to $1.1495, the strongest since Aug. 26.
Treasuries halted three days of gains, with the yield on 10-year notes climbing two basis points to 1.99 percent. It fell eight basis points on Wednesday.
Sovereign bond yields in developed markets slid to 0.96 percent on average Wednesday, the lowest level since April 30, according to Bloomberg World Bond Indexes.
The probability of a Fed increase by the December policy meeting has dropped to 27 percent, down from 70 percent at the start of August, according to futures data compiled by Bloomberg. The calculations are based on the assumption the effective fed funds rate will average 0.375 percent after liftoff.The probability of a move by the March meeting dropped below 50 percent on Wednesday.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index advanced 2.1 percent, the first gain in three days. Benchmark equity gauges in China, South Korea, Turkey, Thailand and the Philippines climbed at least 1 percent.
The Shanghai Composite Index added 2.3 percent and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.1 percent in Hong Kong. A Chinese plan to reorganize the telecom industry raised speculation the government will accelerate reforms of state- owned companies to revive economic growth.
The Jakarta Composite Index gained 0.5 percent and the rupiah appreciated 1.5 percent. Indonesia will announce stimulus measures on Thursday including a formula for regular minimum wage increases, Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Darmin Nasution said on Monday. Bank Indonesia will hold its policy rate at 7.5 percent on Thursday, according to all 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Egypt’s central bank weakened the nation’s pound 1.3 percent, the third devaluation this year, after foreign reserves tumbled and the current account deficit widened to the most in at least 15 years.
West Texas Intermediate crude dropped 1.3 percent to $46.04 a barrel as rising crude supplies bolstered speculation a global surplus is persisting. Industry data indicated U.S. oil stockpiles expanded by 9.3 million barrels last week, with analysts forecasting a government report Thursday to show an increase of 2.58 million barrels. Brent fell 0.8 percent to $48.74.
Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,185.11 an ounce after touching the highest level since late June on Wednesday. The metal climbed above its 200-day moving average Wednesday for the first time in about five months.
Copper extended an advance, gaining as much as 0.9 percent to $5,345 a metric ton in London. Nickel, zinc and aluminum also rose.