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WATCH: Economists at CIBC World Markets are downplaying fears of a U.S.-style housing bubble in Canada. In their latest report, Benjamin Tal and Andrew Grantham argue the market is unique and driven by local factors including:
“Averages can mask a lot of things. Provincially and even at the city level, very different trends are occurring within the housing market that makes using a blanket national average useless,” Tal and Grantham write in a note to clients.
The economists say it is still possible for the Canadian housing market to “overshoot” – with condos in Toronto and Vancouver particularly vulnerable to a price correction – but that the market has not been tested yet by higher interest rates.
“Comparing Canada to the pre-crisis U.S. market is not only wrong but also irresponsible,” they write.
“The market will adjust, but given the many faces of the market, the adjustment will not be uniform. It will impact different segments at different intensity, and therefore on aggregate be smoother and take longer to fully unload.”