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Top Picks from Don Vialoux: Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF, Horizons Betapro Comex Silver ETF and Global X Silver Miners

Tags: Market Call

Don Vialoux, Research Analyst, Horizons ETF Management Canada

FOCUS: Technical Analysis & Seasonal Investing

MARKET OUTLOOK:

This year the S&P 500 Index is following its traditional trading pattern during years when winter was colder than average. The winter of 2015 was the coldest in more than a decade. The Index moves higher from October to early May, but underperforms average markets. The Index peaks in late April. After a corrective phase, another short term peak normally occurs in the second half of July approximately when the second quarter earnings report season reaches a peak. The Index frequently moves lower into mid-August followed by a strong advance into the latter part of the year.

Top Picks:

Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF (SOIL.P)

Seasonal influence for the sector turned positive at the beginning of July for a potential seasonal trade until the beginning of January. Technical parameters recently turned positive (intermediate uptrend, outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index, positive short term momentum indicators). Second quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis will turn positive this quarter.

Horizons Betapro Comex Silver ETF (HUZ.TO)

Seasonality turned positive early in July for a seasonal trade to the beginning of October. Technical indicators show signs of base building. Horizons Silver ETF bottomed early in July at $8.93. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Silver is outperforming gold. Units trading in Canadian dollars and are hedged against currency fluctuations.

Global X Silver Miners (SIL)

Silver (and gold) stocks have a history of entering into a period of seasonal strength near the end of July for a trade into early October. Waiting until near the end of July to enter the trade is important this year because second quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis will be horrendous.

Disclosure:

Personal

Family

Portfolio/Fund

SOIL

N

N

N

HUZ

N

N

N

SIL

N

N

N

Past Picks: May 29, 2015

Horizons Active Floating Rate Bond ETF (HFR.TO)

  • Then: $10.13
  • Now: $10.09
  • Return: -0.40%
  • TR: -0.23%

Two month Canadian Treasury Bill

Five month Canadian Treasury Bill

Total Return Average: -0.08%

Disclosure:

Personal

Family

Portfolio/Fund

HFR

N

N

Y

2-MONTH T BILL

N

N

N

5-MONTH T BILL

N

N

N

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fund Profile

Mr. Vialoux advises the Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC.TO), a fund that uses a combination of seasonal, technical and fundamental research to determine content and timing.

Twitter: @equityclock

Website: www.horizonsetfs.com
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