Columnist image
Noah Zivitz

Managing Editor, BNN Bloomberg

Archive

FOREIGN BUYER DATA 

New data from the Ontario government shows foreign buyers accounted for 4.7 per cent of home sales in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region between April 24 and May 26. That’s pretty consistent with the 4.9 per cent figure previously reported by the Toronto Real Estate Board, thus suggesting the new tax on foreign speculators hasn’t scared off many buyers. Worth pointing out, however, that Realosophy’s John Pasalis reckons foreign buying activity is closer to eight per cent in the Greater Toronto Area and as much as 15 per cent in York Region. All this to say, we’ll stress test the data on the eve of another data dump from the Toronto Real Estate Board.

ONTARIO HOUSING WARNING

The Fraser Institute is warning Ontario has a lot to lose if the housing market turns south. According to the think tank, housing activity accounted for 29 per cent of the province's economic growth last year; it says that’s particularly worrisome when business investment is mired below peak levels thanks to high costs in the province. "The entire provincial economy is so reliant on Toronto’s housing market for growth, that a cooling off — or worse, a burst — would be felt across Ontario, not just in the GTA,” said researcher Philip Cross in a statement. He added there's an element of irony here after Central Canada showed "smugness" when Alberta's economy was walloped by the crash in crude oil prices. We'll speak with Cross at 8:30 a.m. ET.

TENSION BUILDS AHEAD OF G20 SUMMIT

U.S. President Donald Trump used his Fourth of July address yesterday to champion his country’s economy. “The economy is blazing,” he said. “And on every front we’re doing well.” Meanwhile, anticipation is mounting for his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hamburg later this week and tension is rising with North Korea. Kim Jong Un is quoted by state media as saying the U.S. “would not be very happy with this gift sent on the July 4 anniversary.” Meanwhile, U.S. General Vincent Brooks warned today that “it would be a grave mistake” for anyone to doubt America’s willingness to drop its self-restraint. We’ll continue evaluating geopolitical risk for the markets.

BNN Advisor

Vancouver: Housing concerns cross generations

Winnipeg and Saskatchewan: The loonie and U.S. protectionism weigh on Central Canada

Yellowknife and Whitehorse: The hurdles of northern living and aboriginal issues

OTHER NOTABLE STORIES

-Volvo announced today all its vehicles will be electric starting in 2019. We’ll gather insight on whether the rest of the industry will follow, and the implications for parts makers.  

-The implied probability of the Bank of Canada raising rates next week by a quarter percentage point remains close to 90 per cent. The Canadian dollar reached as high as 77.44 cents U.S. yesterday. It hasn’t hit 78 cents since August 19. Meanwhile, we'll hear from one strategist today who has an unmistakably bearish view on Canada. Macquarie's David Doyle joins us at 10:10 a.m. ET to explain why he sees the dollar falling to 70 cents U.S. by the end of next year and why he's telling clients to underweight Canadian equities in their portfolios.

NOTABLE RELEASES/EVENTS

-Notable data: U.S. factory orders (10:00 a.m. ET)

-9:00 a.m. ET: CMHC report on “ownership structure of the purpose-built rental market in Canada”

-11:00 a.m. ET: IMF releases G20 report on “global prospects and policy challenges”

-12:15 p.m. ET: Ontario Finance Minister Charles Sousa and Housing Minister Chris Ballard speak to the media in Toronto

-2:00 p.m. ET: U.S. Federal Reserve releases minutes from its last meeting 

Every morning BNN's Managing Editor Noah Zivitz writes a ‘chase note’ to BNN's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins by heading to www.bnn.ca/subscribe.