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Andrew Bell

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With Washington abruptly redefining its role on the world stage, our focus on BNN today is the challenge Canada faces in adapting to the new script.

This morning at 11 a.m. ET, Finance Minister Bill Morneau’s Advisory Council on Economic Growth is set to release its latest recommendations.

Our own Jon Erlichman had the scoop last week that the panel will urge Ottawa to foster exports to China as U.S. protectionism looms. The world, Credit Suisse warns, “is suddenly veering away from a 70-year long trend toward freer trade.”

Tune in to Business Day PM, starting at 2 p.m. ET, for Jon’s interview with council Chair Dominic Barton. Refreshingly, by the way, Barton’s council is dominated by women.

PULSE CHECK

Asia, particularly India, is already a gigantic market for Canadian pulse crops such as lentils and chickpeas. At 10:30 a.m. ET, we’ll hear more about that business and what can be done to boost sales from Murad Al-Katib, CEO of pulse giant AGT Foods and Ingredients (AGT.TO).


FEBRUARY IS YOUR MONEY MONTH ON BNN!

BNN’s annual look at personal finance and financial planning is underway – with financial experts, economists, CEOs, and analysts all offering advice and guidance for Canadians looking for a financial edge. Find it all at BNN.ca/personalfinance


RESURRECTING TPP

Resurrecting the stalled Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact, which the new U.S. administration has spurned, would be one way to reduce this country’s dependence of the U.S. market.

At 9:15 a.m. ET, we’ll get insight from Jon Johnson, former advisor to the Canadian government during North American Free Trade Agreement talks. He tells segment producer Adena Ali that simply going ahead with TPP might be the most promising approach “because negotiations have already taken place and a lot of issues probably have been resolved. This doesn’t mean that it would be easy but at least Canada wouldn’t be starting from scratch. While Japan isn't as big as China, it still is one of the major economies in the world.”

However, he warns that negotiations with China “could be long and difficult.”

CROSS-BORDER COMMODITIES

The prospect of a border adjustment tax regime imposing a de-facto import levy on Canadian oil and gas has alarmed some investors. At 11:40 a.m. ET, we'll be joined by Credit Suisse global energy Economist Jan Stuart. “Clearly, many Republicans in Washington think of a cross border tax as a US$1-trillion revenue raiser; and see it as a keystone in the edifice of wholesale [corporate] tax reform,” Stuart and his colleagues say. But they argue that the threat to this country’s oil sector may be less than feared partly because “U.S. trade with Canada is simply too complex and diversified and rich.”

Meanwhile, America’s growing oil and gas production represents a competitive threat to Canada.

Scotia warns that U.S. approval of the US$4.2-billion Rover Pipeline will unlock supply in the U.S. Northeast and increase the pressure on producers in other regions. It “will negatively affect AECO, Chicago, and Dawn basis pricing, in addition to broadly weighing on Henry Hub futures as a result of additional supply available to the market.”

CHINA FIRST

At 2:30 p.m. ET, we hear from Stephen Myrow, managing partner at Beacon Policy Advisors, a research house that “guides institutional investors through the fog of policymaking.”

He tells segment producer Karyn Wilson that a fundamental fear is driving Trump’s “America First” campaign: Trump's team thinks China is eclipsing the United States in terms of global stature.

TECH TAKES A STAND

Finally, U.S. technology leaders such as Alphabet (GOOGL.), Apple (AAPL.O) and Microsoft (MSFT.O) have joined a host of other major U.S. companies in opposition to U.S. President Donald Trump's ban on arrivals from seven mostly-Muslim countries,

In a court filing, they warn that the order “inflicts significant harm on American business, innovation, and growth … Immigrants or their children founded more than 200 of the companies on the Fortune 500 list."

Happy Monday, everyone.

Every morning Commodities host Andrew Bell writes a ‘chase note’ to BNN's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins by heading to www.bnn.ca/subscribe.