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Jul 25, 2017

Higher loonie will hurt Canadian competitiveness: Money manager

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As the Canadian dollar continues to strengthen against its U.S. counterpart, one money manager is warning that a higher loonie will hurt Canadian competiveness.

“The Canadian economy wants a lower dollar,” Greg Taylor, portfolio manager at LOGiQ, told BNN in an interview Tuesday. "I think it’s important to find out why the Canadian dollar is moving so much — and it’s definitely weakness in the U.S., it’s not strength in Canada.”

He added that while a higher loonie may be good for cross-border shopping, it’s not going to help Canadian competiveness.  

“No one is going to rush to open a factory in Ontario anytime the dollar is at 80 cents,” he added.  

However, not everyone wants to see the loonie come down.

Former Quebec Premier Jean Charest told BNN in an interview Monday the strong dollar is a sign of a healthy economy.

“I’d like to see the dollar higher, I think it speaks to the health of our economy," he said. "But I’d like to see it also move at a pace that will allow us to absorb the changes. "I don’t know of any economy in the world that’s built itself up on a weak currency.”   

The Canadian dollar was steady against the greenback on Tuesday after briefly touching a 14-month high, as the U.S. currency pared earlier losses ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy announcement.

The loonie hit 80 cents US Monday for the first time since July 1, 2015.

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    The Canadian dollar, which has gained some 10 per cent since early May, failed to crack $1.2480 against the U.S. dollar, or 80.13 cents US, after breaching $1.25 on Monday, even as oil prices rallied three per cent.

    "I think we stalled out here a little bit. We've had three good go's at breaking the $1.2480 level," said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank, who maintaining a $1.28 year-end forecast.

    "After a 10 per cent rally in the CAD, it's probably getting close to the end of the road."

    Osborne noted that the U.S. dollar tended to rally during the second half of the year, and that the Canadian dollar also appeared to be "completely disconnected" from the price of crude oil, a key Canadian export.

    At 4 p.m., the loonie was trading at $1.2505, or 79.97 cents US, little changed from Monday's close.

    The currency's strongest level of the session was $1.2481, while its weakest level was $1.2533.

    The next key level to watch is $1.2461, or 80.25 cents US, reached in May 2016.

    The U.S. dollar, which earlier touched a 13-month low against a basket of major currencies, has fallen nearly four per cent over the past month and more than  percent this year.

    The Fed began its meeting on Tuesday, but the market was not expecting a change in interest rates. Investors remained wary of the short-term U.S. economic outlook amid uncertainty surrounding the U.S. healthcare vote and an investigation into allegations of Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. election.

    In Canada, markets have fully priced in the expectation that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates one more time by the end of the year.

    The spread between yields of Canadian and U.S. two-year bonds has narrowed sharply since early June and was at 6.8 basis points, its narrowest since October 2015.

    Canadian government bond prices were lower across the maturity curve, with the two-year down 8.5 cents to yield 1.322 per cent and the benchmark 10-year down 80 cents to yield 2.018 per cent.

    The two-year bond yield was at its highest in more than five years, while the 10-year bond yield was at its highest since Nov. 2014.

    -- With files from Reuters