Don Vialoux, Technical Analyst, TimingTheMarket.ca & EquityClock.com

FOCUS: Technical Analysis and Seasonal Investing

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MARKET OUTLOOK:

Momentum barometers for the S&P 500 Index and the TSX Composite Index (based on percent of stocks trading above their 50 day moving average) indicate that both markets reached an intermediate overbought level in mid-July and are trending down.

Top Picks:

iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index ETF (XGD.TO) 

Gold prices broke earlier this week to a 4-year high in Canadian dollars extending an intermediate uptrend.

Gold equities are outperforming gold, a positive technical sign at this time of year

seasonal influences from the end of July to the beginning of October have just turned positive

Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL)

Silver and silver equities have established uptrends and show positive performance relative to the S&P 500 Index.

Seasonal influences for silver and silver equities are positive from early July until at least October.

Silver equities are outperforming silver, a positive technical sign at this time of year.

Cash

North American equity markets recently entered into a period of greater volatility that is expected to last until mid-October, implying lower equity prices except precious metal stocks. Historically, a seasonal buying opportunity has occurred between the middle of July and the middle of October following a volatility spike. Cause for the volatility spike this year has yet to be determined. Possibilities include the U.S. Presidential election, terrorist activities, currency wars, etc. 

Disclsiure  Personal Family Portfolio/Fund
 XGD N   Y N 
 SIL N  N  N 

Past Picks: May 17, 2016 

First Trust AlphaDEX Canadian Dividend ETF (FDY.TO)

  • Then: $18.06
  • Now: $18.72
  • Return: +3.65%
  • TR: +4.47%

First Trust Technology AlphaDEX ETF (FXL.N)

  • Then: $31.06
  • Now: $35.08
  • Return: +12.94%
  • TR: +13.13%

Fortis (FTS.TO)

  • Then: $40.04
  • Now: $43.22
  • Return: +7.94%
  • TR: +7.94%

Total Return Average: +8.51%

Disclsiure  Personal Family Portfolio/Fund
FDY N N N
FXL N N N
FTS N N N

Blogs: www.timingthemarket.ca   www.equityclock.com

StockTwits handle @EquityClock