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Andrew Bell

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Today on BNN, we’re focusing on earnings from Canada’s banks - the linchpin in many a portfolio. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO) CEO Victor Dodig tells investors that in its fiscal first quarter, his outfit  “delivered strong performance across retail and business banking, wealth management and capital markets."

National Bank Analyst Gabriel Dechaine saw “strong efficiency… across all segments” and was pleasantly surprised by the bank’s plan to buy back up to 8 million shares, representing two per cent of the total outstanding number.

CIBC, the first of the big banks to report its Q1 results, said Canadian personal and commercial profits climbed three per cent as costs were reined in.

The stock has been a laggard, posting an total return of 93 per cent over five years versus 106 per cent for bank shares as a whole. Brian Madden, portfolio manager at Goodreid Investment Counsel, told us this morning the shares have been trading at a discount. “There is fear out there that the bank has been chasing market share in mortgages,” he says, but he thinks the results will reassure investors the bank isn’t being “cavalier.”

It’s still unclear when or if CIBC will be able to pull of its takeover of Chicago-based PrivateBancorp (PVTB.O) which was originally valued last year at US$3.8 billion or US$47.00 per PrivateBancorp share. The target’s stock has soared above US$57 after an explosive rally in U.S. bank stocks and it called off a meeting of shareholders to approve the deal last year.

CIBC’s Dodig told analysts this morning that “Our U.S. strategy continues to be intact and that is to expand our foothold in the U.S. - June 29th is the expiry date when everyone can walk away and in the interim we await PrivateBancorp management to set another meeting date.”

He added: “We have lots of different avenues to provide returns to our shareholders in the short to medium term but in the longer term we need that U.S. exposure.”  And there was more colour on that proposal to repurchase shares. “We might have to focus on buying back stock if we are not able to consummate that deal.”

Thanks to James Berkow for listening to the call and sharing Dodig’s remarks.

Check out Paul Bagnell’s preview of the bank sector’s earnings. He says that after the industry steered through “the twin perils of low crude oil prices and stretched real estate markets in 2016… for the first time in years, there seems to be a bit less to fret about when it comes to the banks and threats to their profit growth.”


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BUBBLE BURSTING

But fears of a housing slide still cover the Canadian market as a whole. Sun Life Global Investments’ Sadiq Adatia told Catherine Murray on Business Day PM yesterday that  “eventually, we are going to see this [Toronto] real estate market kind of stop and then come off a cliff. The longer we stay in this run-up, the bigger the downturn is going to be.”

CRESCENT POINT WATCH

We’re also watching Crescent Point Energy Corp (CPG.TO), a former market darling that has been out of favour after a $650-million equity issue last year that surprised some investors. The company is also said to have attracted an activist investor but mergers and acquisitions lawyer Walied Soliman told us yesterday that he doesn’t see evidence that Crescent Point management faces a siege.

At 11:30 a.m. ET, we’ll hear from Rob Lauzon, deputy chief investment officer of Middlefield Capital, who has sold some of his Crescent shares, complaining that the company has done a poor job of keeping shareholders informed, even though he thinks the stock is cheap.

Crescent Point CEO Scott Saxberg says he has made “it a priority to improve communication and engagement” with the company’s owners. Looks like the one type of communication they’d like to see less of is press releases announcing equity raises.

CEO OF THE YEAR

Finally, don’t miss Catherine’s half-hour feature interview today at 3p.m. ET with Air Canada (AC.TO) Chief Executive Officer Calin Rovinescu, who has was named Canada's Outstanding CEO of the Year for 2016. Investors have seen the stock soar an incredible 1,200 per cent in five years.

Every morning Commodities host Andrew Bell writes a ‘chase note’ to BNN's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins by heading to www.bnn.ca/subscribe