Elliott Fishman, Director, U.S. and International Equity Trading, Trading Services Group, ScotiaWealth

FOCUS: Technical Analysis

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MARKET OUTLOOK:

DOW: Has been in a trading range for quite some time now.

It is currently at the top of its trading range, but for the first time in a long time the DOW is showing signs of a possible breakout to the upside. I would continue to hold or add to existing positions.

TSX: A bit of a different picture here, huge recent rally along with oil and gold. Testing the 100 week moving average of 14242, currently at 14083. I sense an oil retracement which will bring the TSX short term lower. The low 13,000s aren’t out of the question with any break in oil.

It has built a very nice base at the low $20s. It is currently walking the tightrope of its 200 week moving average of $23.39. The last test of the 200 week moving average was in 2010. It is currently in a very tight trading range of $23-to-$26. Maybe more of a hold than trade, but is at a very attractive entry point for me.

Top Picks:

Macy’s (M.N)

Absolutely awful sector to be in as most of the big name retailers have suffered big time.

More of a hunch, Macy’s held the $30 lever back in 2010 while under big pressure, it’s there again and is not a fundamental play for sure.

Buy now with a $40 upside.

Still has an almost 5 percent yield and still pays a nice dividend.

eBAY (EBAY.O)

Has built a nice trading base (support) at $23.50 and is currently in a very tight trading range of $23.40-to-$26.00 Has the appearance of a stock ready to move higher as the sector (tech) has been awesome. Volumes have been solid, I see a test of $30 coming.

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD.US)

Currently building a nice base above its 100 week moving average of $114.25.

I like the way gold itself has weathered its usual volatility and appears to be ready to work itself higher from here. $1400 will be the first stop for gold on the next move up and an easy test of GLD’s 200 week moving average of $126.75.

 

Disclosure Personal Family Portfolio/Fund
 M N  N  Y 
EBAY  N  N  Y 
GLD  N  N  Y 

Past Picks: February 19, 2016

Ralph Lauren (RL.N)

  • Then: $88.28
  • Now: $95.44
  • Return: +8.11%
  • TR: +8.67%

Netflix (NFLX.O)

  • Then: $89.23
  • Now: $101.51
  • Return: +13.76%
  • TR: +13.76%

Boeing (BA.N)

  • Then: $115.16
  • Now: $126.41
  • Return: +9.77%
  • TR: +10.67%

Total Return Average: 

 

Disclosure Personal Family Portfolio/Fund
RL N N Y
NFLX N N Y
BA N N Y

Website: www.scotiabank.com