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Sep 15, 2017

Loonie dips as rate hike reaction fades

Canadian dollar

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The Canadian dollar lost ground on Friday against a weaker U.S. dollar, as the boost from last week's interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada showed some signs of fading.

At 4 p.m. ET, the Canadian dollar was trading at $1.2184 to the greenback, or 82.07 cents US, down 0.2 per cent. It traded in a range of $1.2120 to $1.2219.

For the week, the loonie also dipped 0.2 per cent. It rose 1.9 per cent the previous week after the Bank of Canada raised rates for the second time in two months and left the door open to further increases.

"We really haven't seen much follow through this week," said Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX. "Everyone has priced in the rate hikes now."

Data from the overnight index swaps market showed that another hike has been nearly fully discounted by December. 

Speculators have mostly held onto bullish bets on the loonie, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Reuters calculations showed.

Canadian dollar net long positions dipped to 50,499 contracts as of Sept. 12 from 53,644 contracts a week earlier. The bullish positioning indicates that investors have bought into the Bank of Canada's hawkish message, Sahota said.

Canadian household debt as a share of income hit a record in the second quarter. The Bank of Canada has been concerned that highly indebted Canadians have less flexibility to deal with sudden changes in their income.

Separate data showed Canadian home resales bounced back in August after four straight monthly declines, suggesting the cooling market may be stabilizing.

The U.S. dollar retreated against a basket of major currencies, after data showing an unexpected decline in U.S. retail sales last month dimmed expectations for an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in December.

U.S. crude prices, which have climbed this week on higher demand forecasts and the restart of refineries in the United States following recent storms, settled flat at US$49.89 a barrel.

Canadian government bond prices were lower across the yield curve, with the 10-year falling 25 cents to yield 2.088 per cent. The gap between the 10-year yield and its U.S. counterpart narrowed by 2.8 basis points to a spread of -11.3 basis points. Last Friday, the spread hit its narrowest since October 2013 at -7.8 basis points.