The U.S. House of Representatives special election in Pennsylvania outcome of a “virtual tie” is a small market negative but not a bellwether for November elections as the Republicans’ economic growth agenda won’t be at risk to the extent some might think, Evercore ISI’s Terry Haines wrote in a note Wednesday.
“The likely investor reaction based on flawed Washington conventional wisdom will be that the Trump / Congressional Republicans economic growth agenda is in peril because Republicans will be less likely to keep the House in the 2018 midterms,” Haines said. “We thought and still think that is not the case.”
The election Tuesday in southwestern Pennsylvania remained too close to call with all precincts reporting results. NBC declared Democrat Conor Lamb had won against Republican Rick Saccone and Lamb had already declared victory but some absentee ballots were still left to be counted.
RBC Capital Markets analysts had said on Monday that a Republican defeat in the election could weigh on sentiment of conservative voters and “could be a problem for stocks.”
“We are a long way from seeing the House battle clarified,” Haines said, and “Congressional Republicans will have a strong story to tell and we do not count them out at this early stage.”
--With assistance from Kasia Klimasinska Laura Curtis and Lu Wang