Take profits in U.S. equities and deploy overseas
As the U.S. stock market continues to make new record highs, David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates, is warning that the rally is “long in the tooth” and could stumble if Donald Trump fails to deliver promised tax cuts.
“Frankly, I would rather take profits in the U.S. – and the market is giving us those profits – and deploy them in parts of the world, in Europe and in Asia where the runway for growth is longer,” Rosenberg told BNN in an interview on Monday. “They are in the middle innings of their cycle as opposed to the eighth inning in the U.S.”
Japan, Europe, and Southeast Asia all present compelling opportunities for investors as the U.S. market rally enters its hundredth month, an unprecedented run in the post-war era, he said.
The fundamentals of those markets are strong and while the U.S. central bank is looking at raising rates, it will be years before European central banks are in a position to make similar moves, Rosenberg said.
Too many money managers are worrying about potential hurdles to European economic growth while dismissing worries about U.S. president Donald Trump and his “disturbing” treatment of economic issues such as the recent NAFTA talks, he said.
Investors are salivating over the potential windfall from deep tax cuts Trump promises to deliver by the end of the year, but Trump may struggle to make good on it – and that could spell trouble for the current market rally, said Rosenberg.
“I think if we don’t see anything by the opening months of next year it’s going to be a problem for the market,” he said. “We saw what happened with health care already. We see a president that’s having a tough time getting his agenda through outside of what he can do through executive order.”