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B.C. and Ontario have had some of the largest housing price increases so these provinces will feel the biggest impact, economist Brian DePratto told BNN.ca in a phone interview.
“This is more of a pause, rather than a crash,” he said.
A dip in home prices between 1 percent and 3 percent is expected over the next two-and-a-half years across Canada, he wrote in a report released on Tuesday.
For a housing crash to take place, DePratto argues that the unemployment rate would need to rise to the 8-to-9-percent range from its current 7 percent, and/or a significant recession would need to be underway. He doesn’t expect either of these conditions to materialize.
DePratto also said doesn’t expect the housing price decline to be a significant drag on Canada’s economy when balanced against other drivers of economic growth, like a recovering export market.
He estimates weakening housing prices to shave 0.2 percentage points from Canada’s GDP over 2016 and 2017, but economic growth will then stabilize.