Noah Zivitz

Managing Editor, BNN Bloomberg

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TransCanada will move one step closer to learning the fate of its Keystone XL project today. The Nebraska Public Service Commission will vote on the controversial pipeline’s route at 11:00 a.m. ET this morning. Whatever the outcome, this won’t be the final chapter – with court challenges possible, regardless of whether it’s a yes or no. And in the event of an affirmative decision, TransCanada will still have to make a final investment decision. Either way, it’s a moment that’s been nine years in the making. Jameson has documented the scenarios and implications for the oil patch here. 

Couple of ancillary angles:

-The PSC has stated its vote will be based on evidence in the record, meaning last week’s spill in South Dakota won’t be included in consideration. Nevertheless, we’ll track developments. According to the last formal update, clean-up work continues with approximately 150 workers on site.

-And despite the death of Energy East and uncertainty surrounding Keystone XL, TransCanada has outperformed its main rival in the last year. TRP has posted a nearly-8% return over the last 12 months, while Enbridge has a negative return approaching 18%. We’ll pause to consider why and assess the investment outlook for both.

NOTLEY MAKES THE CASE FOR TRANS MOUNTAIN

More than 1,600 kilometres away from the KXL vote, Alberta Premier Rachel Notley will be in Toronto to launch her cross-Canada tour in support of that other controversial pipeline. She’s in the city to make the case for Trans Mountain, but you have to believe she’ll also have something to say about Keystone XL. We’ll be there for her speech and we look forward to having an in-depth conversation with Notley at 3 p.m. ET this afternoon.

NAFTA TALKS CONTINUE

The fifth round of renegotiations continue in Mexico; by all accounts, there isn’t a ton of progress to report. Our CTV News colleague Richard Madan describes the talks as being “deadlocked on contentious issues.” Meanwhile, he also spoke with former Mexican President Vicente Fox, who went on profanity-laced tirade against Donald Trump and also took aim at Justin Trudeau. We’ll have that story this morning.  

TRUDEAU REPORTEDLY PLANNING TO LAUNCH CHINA TRADE TALKS

The National Post is reporting Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will go to China next month to start free trade talks with China. The potential payoff from a pact with the world’s second-largest economy will of course be weighed against almost inevitable questions about human rights, security and sensitive industrial sectors.

CANNIMED BUYING NEWSTRIKE

The two cannabis companies announced their deal late Friday, with CanniMed offering .033 of a share for each Newstrike share. Arguably the most intriguing angle here is where this leaves Aurora Cannabis, which announced an unsolicited proposal to buy CanniMed before the Newstrike news surfaced. We’re in touch with all principals.

OTHER NOTABLE STORIES:

-Probably not a surprise considering recent headlines, but a new Angus Reid Institute survey shows public opinion is decidedly sour on Bill Morneau. The survey, which measured sentiment surrounding Justin Trudeau's cabinet, puts Morneau dead last in the grading of who is doing a good or bad job. At the opposite end of the spectrum, Ralph Goodale and Chrystia Freeland get the most positive grades. 

-Katanga Mining is a stock to watch today after an extensive press release this morning documenting a laundry list of accounting restatements, previously undisclosed management compensation, material weaknesses, and director resignations.

NOTABLE RELEASES/EVENTS

-10:00 a.m. ET: Former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna deliver remarks at Montreal Protocol anniversary event in Montreal (plus media avail at 11:00 a.m. ET)

-11:00 a.m. ET: Nebraska Public Service Commission holds vote on Keystone XL pipeline route application

-12:00 p.m. ET: Alberta Premier Rachel Notley delivers speech at Empire Club in Toronto

-12:00 p.m. ET: CPPIB CEO Mark Machin delivers speech at Economic Club in Toronto

-NAFTA talks continue in Mexico City  

Every morning BNN's Managing Editor Noah Zivitz writes a ‘chase note’ to BNN's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins by heading to www.bnn.ca/subscribe.