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Amber Kanwar

Anchor, Reporter

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Here are five things you need to know this morning:
 
The dollar has no conscience: My former colleague Michael Kane was fond of saying this, and after watching the attacks by Hamas on Israel on the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, it rings true today. While Canadian markets were closed, U.S. markets finished higher on the day, and futures are up. The driver was a typically hawkish member of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, suggesting that there may not be a need for more rate hikes because of the surge in Treasury yields. Still, thoughts of war showed up in the market. Defense stocks like Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin and RTX surged yesterday. These stocks have struggled this year and RBC said sentiment could get a lift here. “We believe potential escalation will keep sentiment on the sector elevated for the near-term,” RBC said in a note to clients. Gold also popped on the day and continues to advance this morning after slumping to the lowest level since March. We will see if the gains hold. Geopolitics is notoriously difficult to price into the market, even as the number of hotspots grow. In addition to renewed fighting in the Middle East, there is still Russia’s war in Ukraine and tensions simmering between U.S. and China. Earnings, however, are easier to price in, and those start in earnest on Friday with the U.S. banks reporting. 
 
More questions than answers: The oil markets are the most obvious place for investors to see the implications of war in Israel. Oil popped higher yesterday, but is flat today. Key to understanding what happens with oil will be understanding how the conflict will draw in the United States, Saudi Arabia and Iran. How overtly will Iran be blamed for fueling Hamas? Will Iranian oil come off the market as a result? How does this complicate a diplomatic reset between Saudi Arabia and the U.S.? The U.S. has been trying to get Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel, but part of that meant that Israel would make concessions to Palestinians, and it is hard to see that happening now. There are more questions than answers right now. 
 
Pepsi pops: Shares of Pepsi are modestly higher in the pre-market after reporting quarterly earnings that were better than expected. The snack and pop-maker also nudged up its profit forecast but kept growth targets unchanged. Shares of Pepsi and other junk food makers have come under pressure because of fears of a slowdown due to obesity drugs that reduce snack cravings. As I type, the company is being asked about that on the conference call. Management said the impact is negligible on their business so far, but acknowledged there are a lot of question marks about the impact on consumer choices. One thing that caught my eye was that Frito-Lay organic sales rose seven per cent, but that was half the rate of the prior quarter. 
 
Another strike: More than 4,000 workers at General Motors' Canadian plants are going on strike, after contract negotiations failed. Unifor president Lana Payne said GM has been unwilling to agree to the union's pattern bargaining demands. You'll recall, the union had been trying to get GM to match a deal it signed with Ford Canada. Unifor said its members will remain on strike until the pattern agreement with Ford is met.
 
The plot thickens: Aimia has formally acknowledged the hostile takeover bid by Mithaq Capital. Mithaq wants to buy the rest of the shares it doesn’t own for $3.66 per share. Aimia said they are reviewing the offer as well as “other options to enhance shareholder value,” including alternatives that the company was pursuing before Mithaq came around. And while it is not outright saying no to the deal, Aimia has made it pretty clear that they have some issues with the offer. The company pointed out several “unprecedented terms” that create significant uncertainty, including requirements that all legal action against Mithaq be dropped and resolved to Mithaq’s satisfaction.