(Bloomberg) -- More UK Conservative Members of Parliament are standing down ahead of the looming general election than at any national vote since the party plunged to a landslide defeat in 1997.

Before Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has even set a date for the election, some 63 members of his ruling Tories have already said they don’t plan to defend their seats — the most since 72 stood down in the run-up to the vote 27 years ago.

The high turnover suggests there’s pessimism in the Conservatives about their chances of winning. They’ve trailed Keir Starmer’s opposition Labour Party by a double-digit margin in national polling throughout Sunak’s tenure, and there’s little sign of a turnaround: A YouGov survey this month put Tory support at 19% — matching the low registered under his predecessor, Liz Truss. 

“It looks like rats fleeing a sinking ship,” said Robert Ford, Professor of Politics at the University of Manchester. Ford said he expects twice as many Tories to lose their seats than to retain them in the general election.

YouGov’s poll of 2,037 people put Labour’s lead at 25 points. The right-wing Reform party, which many Tories fear is eroding their vote, logged a record 15%.

Sunak must hold the vote within the next 10 months, and Westminster observers point to October or November as the most likely timing. The premier himself has said he expects the election to be in the second half of the year. That still gives months during which more MPs could stand down, meaning the eventual number of Tories voluntarily leaving Parliament may exceed the total from 1997, when Labour enjoyed huge poll leads before sweeping to power under Tony Blair’s leadership.

There’s still a way to go before the Tories match the total of 100 Labour MPs who stepped down in the lead-up to the 2010 general election, which their party lost. But that total was also skewed by an expenses scandal that tainted lawmakers from all the main parties and contributed to the turnover. That marked the last time the main party of government changed in the UK, with the Tories first leading a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats for 5 years, and then governing alone.

Of the Tories who have already announced they are standing down, 20 were first elected in 2010, when their party ushered out 13 years of Labour rule. Some 19 were elected in the three general elections since then, when the party was already in power. On Tuesday, two senior Tories who are both standing down at the election quit their ministerial posts: James Heappey and Robert Halfon. 

“Those who see a career in government as their primary motivation know that that career option is about to get foreclosed upon,” Ford said. “So some of them will be people who are retired simply because they don’t fancy the idea of opposition.”

Across the board, Parliament is seeing the largest exodus of lawmakers since 2010, as 9 members of the Scottish Nationalist Party and 17 from Labour have also said they won’t defend their seats. The proportion of SNP and Tory MPs standing down is about double the Labour rate, which may also reflect anticipation that Labour looks set to make gains at the expense of both parties.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.