While most Canadians won’t paying more at the pump this long weekend a few key cities, could see a gas price spike as much as eight cents per litre, according to one petroleum analyst.

Ottawa, Peterborough, Winnipeg, Kelowna, Kamloops, Lethbridge, and all of Quebec (with the exception of the Greater Montreal Area) could all see gas price increases of between 5 and 8 cents per litre, Roger McKnight, chief petroleum analyst with En-Pro International told BNN via email.  

Retail gas margins in those cities are “well below the national average,” he says, and retailers may use this as an opportunity to restore the levels.

However, it would take an “extreme” geopolitical situation for big prices swings to occur on a national scale, McKnight says.

This is because Canadian pump prices follow wholesale price changes in the United States, and with no holiday south of the border this weekend, the typical long-weekend price hikes likely won't be seen in Canada, he explains.

Next week could be a different story though, as the closure of Europe’s largest oil refinery in the Netherlands, due to a massive fire, could trigger a significant increase in gasoline and diesel prices.

“This means that U.S. refiners will export product to Europe to take advantage of the imbalance in supply,” says McKnight.