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Noah Zivitz

Managing Editor, BNN Bloomberg

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Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has no plan to balance the books. The feds tabled their second budget yesterday afternoon. It’s a bombshell-free, deficit-heavy fiscal plan as the government awaits clarity on U.S. President Donald Trump’s next moves.

"Tax changes really were the dog that didn't bark,” TD Economist Brian DePratto told us yesterday afternoon. “They're taking a cautious approach, for better or worse."

While Bay Street can breathe a sigh of relief that capital gains are being left untouched for now, Finance Minister Bill Morneau refused to put an end to the uncertainty. “Those things [changes to the taxation of capital gains and dividend income] aren’t in our budget. … I can say that we will continue to be focused on fairness,” he said when Greg asked point blank if those items are off the table. For further evidence the tax file isn’t closed, page 199 in the budget document clearly points to three specific aspects of tax planning via private corporations that are under review. This will be a big part of our coverage today.

2017 BUDGET: DELVING DEEPER

- Shock absorber: The budget forecasts for the next five years include a $3-billion risk adjustment. Is that enough? Keep in mind iA Financial Chief Economist Clement Gignac previously told us Ottawa could need up to a $10 billion contingency.

- Infrastructure Bank: The Liberals say they "Will soon propose legislation...with the goal of having the Canada Infrastructure Bank operational in late 2017."

- Housing: $11.2 billion over 11 years to support National Housing Strategy, with the bulk dedicated to improving affordability. Also, $241 million for CMHC to improve data collection. And StatsCan is getting $39.9 million over five years to "implement a new housing statistics framework."

- What’s in it for Alberta?: $30 million one-time payment to support resource sector jobs. But also modifications to the tax treatment of oil and gas drilling and development expenses.

-Canada Savings Bond: So long. As anticipated, the Liberals will phase out the 71-year old program, pointing out it's "no longer a cost-effective source for funds for the government, compared to wholesale funding options." Ottawa blames the bonds' declining popularity on "the proliferation of higher-yielding alternative retail investment instruments."

- Donald Trump: 280 pages and not a single mention of the president in the budget document. Only 12 references to the United States. Most seemingly intended to underscore the mutual benefit of the relationship, like this: "We are committed to preserving and strengthening crossborder ties, for the benefit of our mutual prosperity and security."

A basic question: Is the government doing enough to improve Canadians’ confidence in the economy? Based on the early results of our online poll, the answer is a resounding no.


MARKET CALL TONIGHT HAS MOVED

BNN’s Market Call Tonight broadcast now begins at 5:30 p.m. ET/2:30 p.m. PT.


MORNEAU CHALLENGES BNN’S AUDIENCE

“For your viewers out there who are asking themselves is this [fiscal plan] working, I want them to take a look at our unemployment rate,” Morneau told Greg yesterday, going on to point out the rate today, versus when the Liberals took office – and total job creation over the last seven months. “Our plan is working, we’re having an impact on the economy.” That sounds good, but do the details back it up? We’re going to stress test it today.

TRUMP’S REPEAL/REPLACE PLAN PUT TO THE TEST

U.S. President Donald Trump arguably faces the biggest test of his administration to date. The U.S. House of Representatives is expected to debate and vote on Trump's healthcare reform plan today. The U.S. president reportedly threw down the gauntlet in meetings with GOP lawmakers on Tuesday, and is now said to be considering tweaks to bring more Republicans on side. Beyond the stakes today, we'll consider the implications for Trump's fiscal agenda.

OTHER NOTABLE STORIES

- Saskatchewan is raising its provincial sales tax by one percentage point, as telegraphed earlier this week by Brad Wall. We’ve got the Finance Minister on Business Day PM to address his government’s strategy for making the province less beholden to resource revenues.   

RELEASES/EVENTS:

- Notable data: StatsCan EI report (8:30 a.m. ET), U.S. new home sales (10 a.m. ET)

- 8 a.m. ET: Fed Chair Janet Yellen delivers opening remarks at conference in Washington

- 11:45 a.m. ET: Justin Trudeau holds media avail in Toronto

- 12 p.m. ET: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari delivers remarks in Washington

- 12:25 p.m. ET: Bill Morneau hosts Facebook Live at Algonquin College in Ottawa, holds media availability.

- 12:30 p.m. ET: Pfizer CEO Ian Read delivers speech in Washington on healthcare reform

Every morning Commodities host Andrew Bell writes a ‘chase note’ to BNN's editorial staff listing the stories and events that will be in the spotlight that day. Today's note was written by BNN's Managing Editor Noah Zivitz. Have it delivered to your inbox before the trading day begins by heading to www.bnn.ca/subscribe